We know the old saw, "Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics".
And yet we all use statistics because they tell a truth. They do tell us something about whatever is being measured. The problem is that they can't tell us everything. And that means they can be used to hide things.
Which brings us to the other old saw, "The best lie has half a truth in it." That's statistics all over.
I felt it useful to use some statistics in the sermon on Sunday.
But we have to remember that a single statistic doesn't tell the whole story.
Let me give you two examples:
1:
I noted that the Baptist Union of NSW & ACT is growing, but by an amount less than population growth. That means in "real terms" Baptists are in decline.
But that's not the whole story.
Australian population growth is by immigration. That is, Australia is not replacing itself either. Moreover immigration is mostly from "non Christian" backgrounds. eg Buddhist is the fastest growing religion in Australia, but almost entirely by immigration. So Baptists aren't doing too badly, we are growing better than the population is.
2:
I noted that, among others, Anglicans are in decline, around the country by 2% ( or some such).
This is not the whole story either.
This 2% (from memory) hides two very different trends. In the Sydney diocese there is strong growth, which offsets the strong decline throughout the rest of the state (more or less). There could be a number of reasons for this. Sydney is younger other areas are older. (I know there are exceptions- you guys at Armidale are great) Churches that are heavily represented in the older demographic are going to decline because that sector of the population are reaching the end of their lives. The church is declining because the demographic they are based in is declining.
So a statistic can tell you something but it can also deceive you about what's really going on too.
You have to question statistics and find out what's really going on. You also need to be careful of people who base their whole argument on statistics. It must only be one link in the chain of logic.
Also we must never, never let statistics or trends or facts or figures distract us from the deep truths of Scripture. Statistical studies may alert us to a worrying trend, but we must turn to Scripture to make sense of this trend. In fact we need to be saturated in Scripture in order to know what questions to ask to derive statistics.
Let me show you what I mean.
1:
You could look at that original Baptist quote and be deflated - Baptists are in trouble. Some people will be stirred to action, some will be discouraged and depressed- to inaction.
A proper reading might be encouraging and challenging. We are holding our own and growing in population growth, be encouraged. But the mission field is coming to our back yard, who is being raised up to meet that challenge?
2:
The biggest factor in the Sydney/Not Sydney disparity is that Sydney is evangelical and active. Most of the rest of the state is more liberal or high church and far less active. This is why Sydney is growing - they love the gospel, the live the gospel, they preach the gospel.
So be careful with statistics, ask how reliable they are, find out what was really measured, don't let them become 'gospel'
What will happen when the older demographic is gone and only the growing group is left?
Who knows?
I'll trust God and wait and see, I'll also be obedient to his call while I wait.
Michael Hutton,
Ariah Park Baptist Church
